
For more than 100 years, the National Park Service has managed parks to conserve, protect, and restore species and ecosystems to a best approximation of their “natural condition.” But climate change has created a new dynamic, in which historical baselines are often no longer achievable, maintainable, or relevant to expected future conditions. As we are learning from long-term monitoring, we can no longer assume our previous protection strategies will maintain species and ecosystems.
Park managers are using new approaches to think about what kinds of conditions species and ecosystems will face in the future, and what kinds of conservation choices they, as managers, will need to make. By using the best science information we have, park managers can explore the range of plausible future conditions based on how the climate is changing and the resulting changes to species and ecosystems. This planning process helps park managers:
- develop forward-looking goals that conside future climatic conditions
- consider more than one scenario of the future
- link actions to climate impacts with intentionality
- manage for change, not just persistence
- reconsider existing management goals, not just strategies and actions, for compatibility in a changing world.
Here are some tools for thinking about park resources in planning for future climate scenarios. To learn more, check out this website on climate change.
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Climate Change Response Strategy
This strategy is the foundation for the NPS to address climate change through science, adaptation, mitigation, and communication.
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Planning for a Changing Climate
Scenarios help park managers develop goals and evaluate strategies and actions for the climate of the future.
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Resist-Accept-Direct Framework
The RAD Framework captures the decision space for responding to the potential for rapid, irreversible ecological change.
Examples and Tools
- Denali National Park & Preserve
Denali National Park and Preserve: Resisting Permafrost Thaw Impacts on the Denali Park Road
- Locations: Denali National Park & Preserve
Denali National Park and Preserve faces an escalating challenge due to climate change: the historically slow but steadily accelerating collapse down a hillside of the Denali Park Road. This 92-mile scenic route is the only road across six million acres of Denali National Park and Preserve wilderness, and it is an important transportation route for park staff and visitors
- Locations: Apostle Islands National Lakeshore, Boston Harbor Islands National Recreation Area, Colorado National Monument, Devils Tower National Monument, Dinosaur National Monument, more »
- Offices: Inventory and Monitoring Division, Natural Resources Stewardship & Science
Pollinators play a crucial role in national park ecosystems and beyond. In the national parks, species inventories help managers know which pollinators are present, and in what abundance, to better understand the state of park ecosystems and make decisions about how to manage them. From 2024 to 2026, 17 parks across the country will be surveyed for bees and butterflies.
- Offices: Inventory and Monitoring Division, Natural Resources Stewardship & Science
At national parks across the nation, the Inventory & Monitoring Program is dedicated to providing managers with the information they need to make sound, science-based decisions that will help support the National Park Service mission of preserving the resources of America’s most special and treasured places for future generations.
- Offices: Inventory and Monitoring Division, Natural Resources Stewardship & Science
To provide park managers with necessary information, the National Park Service has embarked on a new era of science-based management. An essential component of this strategy is vital signs monitoring, an effort to characterize and determine trends in the condition of park natural resources. When combined with an effective education program, monitoring results can contribute not only to park issues, but also to larger issues that affect the environmental health of the nation.
- Offices: Inventory and Monitoring Division, Natural Resources Stewardship & Science
El monitoreo de signos vitales del Programa del Inventario y Monitoreo (I&M) del NPS aporta datos e información científicamente fiables del estado y la tendencia de determinados recursos naturales a los directores de parques, planificadores, y demás sectores interesados. Esta información sirve como base para tomar decisiones y trabajar con otras agencias y con el público, para la protección a largo plazo de los ecosistemas de los parques.
- Locations: Cumberland Gap National Historical Park
- Offices: Cumberland Piedmont Inventory & Monitoring Network, Inventory and Monitoring Division, Natural Resources Stewardship & Science
In 2008, scientists from the Cumberland Piedmont Network found a concerning trend: E. coli levels were too high. The source needed to be identified and addressed for the health and safety of the thousands of humans and animals that enjoyed the park. The network's long-term water quality monitoring program not only helped to identify the issue, but it also provided the tools to evaluate the solution.
- Locations: Bryce Canyon National Park
- Offices: Inventory and Monitoring Division, Northern Colorado Plateau Inventory & Monitoring Network
Have you wondered what will happen to vegetation in arid climates if they become more arid in the future? Northern Colorado Plateau Network scientists explored the relationships between climate and vegetation at Bryce Canyon National Park. Results include discovery of changes that have already occurred and identification of vegetation types that are most sensitive to continued climate change, providing managers with insights into future scenarios that can aid decision making.
- Locations: Tonto National Monument
- Offices: Sonoran Desert Inventory & Monitoring Network
Sonoran Desert Network scientists monitor key resources and weather at Tonto National Monument by taking measurements throughout the year, which helps us track changes over time. This report summarizes weather and springs data from Water Year 2022. The data describe a dramatic change to Cave Canyon Spring. WY2022 was the third consecutive year of drought, and the park received less than average precipitation in all but three months.
- Rocky Mountain National Park
Rocky Mountain National Park is taking action to resist, accept, and direct change
- Locations: Rocky Mountain National Park
Last updated: July 11, 2023