Vulnerability Assessments

Two black bears sit in the upper branches of a whitebark pine tree in Yellowstone.
Species that are specially adapted to high elevations, like this whitebark pine tree, or cold weather and have narrow tolerance ranges are particularly sensitive to climate change.

NPS/Eric Johnston

Vulnerability assessments help us determine whether species and ecosystems will be harmed by climate change and why. Species and ecosystems respond differently to climate change, depending on the magnitude of the change, how sensitive the species or ecosystem is to that change, and to what degree they are exposed to stressful conditions. Vulnerability assessments are based on long-term monitoring trends and explore the different factors that impact species and ecosystems in order to help managers understand their responses in future climate conditions. There are three main components:

  • Exposure is a measure of how much change in climate and associated impacts a species or ecosystem is likely to experience.
  • Sensitivity refers to the degree to which a species or ecosystem is or is likely to be affected by or responsive to climate change.
  • Adaptive capacity refers to the ability of a species or ecosystem to accommodate or cope with climate change impacts with minimal disruption. It is often likened to the concept of resilience. Read more about adaptive capacity.

Examples of vulnerability

Browse more examples

Showing results 1-10 of 137

    • Offices: Arctic Inventory & Monitoring Network, Central Alaska Inventory & Monitoring Network
    Arctic, boreal forest

    Read the abstract and get the link to an article published in Environmental Research Letters that connects vegetation shift to warming Arctic and Boreal soils under vegetation. Kropp, H., M. M. Loranty, S. M. Natali, A. L. Kholodov, A. V. Rocha, … J. A. O’Donnell … et al. 2020. Shallow soils are warmer under trees and tall shrubs across Arctic and Boreal ecosystems. Environmental Research Letters.

    • Locations: Golden Gate National Recreation Area, Point Reyes National Seashore
    • Offices: San Francisco Bay Area Inventory & Monitoring Network
    Small shorebird stands on a sandy beach. Out of focus behind it are turquoise ocean swells.

    Limantour Beach is wide. Bookended by ocean on one side and grassy dunes on the other, its sandy expanse provides a habitat for many organisms that rely on the rich ecosystem between land and sea. The western snowy plover, a small brown and white shorebird, is one species that finds refuge in the sand. Over time, human activity and development have degraded many beaches like Limantour, and biologists have seen those impacts through the eyes of the snowy plovers.

  • Arctic Inventory & Monitoring Network

    The role of old carbon in aquatic food webs

    • Offices: Arctic Inventory & Monitoring Network
    A bucket full of different kinds of small fishes.

    Read a summary and get the link to this article that looks at the use of old carbon in Arctic fish food webs and potential impacts of climate change: Stanek, A.E., Carey, M.P., O'Donnell, J.A., Laske, S.M., Xu, X., Dunton, K.H., von Biela, V.R. 2024. Arctic fishes reveal a gradient in radiocarbon content and use. Limnology and Oceanography Letters.

    • Locations: Grand Canyon National Park
    People look at oak leaves turning color.

    At Grand Canyon National Park, scientists and resource managers closely monitor observed and projected impacts from climate change that could have significant effects on the park’s vegetation, wildlife, and water supply. One of the ways that the park monitors these impacts is through a phenology observational study for the plant life at the Grand Canyon. Intermountain Park Science, 2024

    • Locations: Wrangell - St Elias National Park & Preserve
    • Offices: Wildland Fire Program
    Closeup of 4 women in helmets smiling at the camera from inside a helicopter.

    In July 2024, fire ecologists re-visited a study area an in Wrangell-St. Elias National Park & Preserve that burned twice in rapid series. The 2009 Chakina Fire burned ~ 56,000 acres in the Chitina River Valley. A mere seven years later, a third of the Chakina fire area reburned in the 2016 Steamboat Fire.

    • Locations: Denali National Park & Preserve
    • Offices: Central Alaska Inventory & Monitoring Network
    A ledge on a hillside creates a storm break for wildlife.

    Read a summary and get a link to a published paper on how caribou and wolves respond to severe winter storms and how diverse landscape features provided some protection: Prugh, L. R., J. D. Lundquist, B. K. Sullender, C. X. Cunningham, J. Dechow, B. L. Borg, P. J. Sousanes, S. Stehn, and M. T. Furand. 2024. Landscape heterogeneity buffers the impact of an extreme weather event on wildlife. Communications Biology 7(1515).

    • Locations: Bryce Canyon National Park
    • Offices: Inventory and Monitoring Division, Northern Colorado Plateau Inventory & Monitoring Network
    A lone pine tree grows on a canyon rim, its roots exposed.

    Have you wondered what will happen to vegetation in arid climates if they become more arid in the future? Northern Colorado Plateau Network scientists explored the relationships between climate and vegetation at Bryce Canyon National Park. Results include discovery of changes that have already occurred and identification of vegetation types that are most sensitive to continued climate change, providing managers with insights into future scenarios that can aid decision making.

    • Locations: Rocky Mountain National Park
    • Offices: Inventory and Monitoring Division, Natural Resource Stewardship and Science Directorate, Rocky Mountain Inventory & Monitoring Network
    Melting snow in a shallow, gravel depression, with a snow-capped mountain in the background.

    Climate change has the potential to profoundly alter national parks, affecting plants, animals, and cultural resources. During this time of unusually rapid change, proactive management—planning ahead—has a better chance of success than reacting to crises after they arise. This article compares historical climate patterns at Rocky Mountain National Park with future projected conditions to help park managers proactively plan for climate change.

    • Locations: Haleakalā National Park
    • Offices: Inventory and Monitoring Division, Natural Resource Stewardship and Science Directorate, Pacific Island Inventory & Monitoring Network
    Striped mosquito resting on brown surface with green background

    As you spend your days exploring Maui, you are likely to experience a couple notable distractions from the island’s native sights and sounds: buzzing and biting from mosquitoes. On Maui these insects are more than just an average outdoor nuisance—they are causing irreversible damage to the island’s ecology.

    • Locations: Apostle Islands National Lakeshore, Herbert Hoover National Historic Site, Isle Royale National Park, Ozark National Scenic Riverways, Pictured Rocks National Lakeshore, Tallgrass Prairie National Preserve
    • Offices: Midwest Archeological Center, Natural Resource Stewardship and Science Directorate
    Dirt trail leads to the keepers

    The Midwest United States, with its windy, rolling plains, doesn't often come to mind when we think about the effects of climate change on our world - but it should.

Last updated: May 8, 2023