Understanding Climate Science

Woman in kayak measuring the end point of a glacier
To track the rate at which glaciers are shrinking, a scientist here takes GPS data points at the terminus of the Grinnell Glacier in Glacier National Park

USGS/Lisa McKeon

Scientists who study Earth's climate are looking at more than just weather statistics over time. Rather, climate science is a complex field spanning multiple disciplines like atmospheric science, physical geography, oceanography, and biogeochemistry. Climate scientists look at the sum of evidence across Earth to explain how and why the climate is changing and what broad-scale impacts are occurring. Often, this information is then modeled to inform projections for the future.

The National Park Service relies upon authoritative sources of climate science, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the U.S. Global Change Research Program. These organizations provide robust projections which can be downscaled to better understand continental, regional, or local patterns and impacts. Downscaled data is then coupled with tools, expertise, and additional data from governmental and nongovernmental partners to help inform the management of the National Park System.

Learn more

The Department of Interior and NPS scientists recently developed technical guidance and best practices for using climate change science to inform analysis, consultation, and decision-making. Also, find examples of how climate science is applied to park planning efforts on the scenario planning showcase page or view a 2021 journal article for more technical information.

More climate science stories from around the National Park Service

Showing results 1-10 of 63

  • Yellowstone National Park

    When the River Breaks

    • Type: Article
    • Locations: Yellowstone National Park
    Flood-damaged section of road surrounded by green vegetation

    In the aftermath of the devastating 2022 Yellowstone floods, we examined historical river flows. Could our insights help predict future events?

  • Smallmouth Bass: Not a Small Threat to the Grand Canyon

    • Type: Article
    • Locations: Glen Canyon National Recreation Area,Grand Canyon National Park
    • Offices: Regions 6, 7, and 8,Resource Stewardship & Science Directorate - Regions 6, 7, 8
    A boat on the Colorado River, Grand Canyon.

    Decades of climate-driven drought, and a consistent imbalance between supply and demand for Colorado River water have led to low reservoir levels in the Colorado River Basin. Low water levels have implications to rivers located both upstream and downstream of the reservoirs, including the introduction of invasive fish. We modeled the probability that smallmouth bass would establish and what we could do to mitigate that threat. Intermountain Park Science, 2024

  • Shifting Gears: Leveraging Monitoring Data to Move from Weather to Ecological Forecasts

    • Type: Article
    • Locations: Capitol Reef National Park
    • Offices: Northern Colorado Plateau Inventory & Monitoring Network
    A person walks through a field of yellow flowers.

    Innovative tools are being developed to nowcast and forecast the severity of drought impacts on wildfire hazard, and other conditions. Automated alerts and forecasts of resource condition provide lead time to implement creative solutions to minimize drought impacts in national parks. The information used to build forecasts is also useful for understanding and planning for potential climate change impacts in the future. Intermountain Park Science, 2024

  • Helping Managers Plan for Climate Change with Remote Sensing at Bryce Canyon National Park

    • Type: Article
    • Locations: Bryce Canyon National Park
    • Offices: Inventory and Monitoring Division,Northern Colorado Plateau Inventory & Monitoring Network
    A lone pine tree grows on a canyon rim, its roots exposed.

    Have you wondered what will happen to vegetation in arid climates if they become more arid in the future? Northern Colorado Plateau Network scientists explored the relationships between climate and vegetation at Bryce Canyon National Park. Results include discovery of changes that have already occurred and identification of vegetation types that are most sensitive to continued climate change, providing managers with insights into future scenarios that can aid decision making.

  • Lake Ice Phenology: A New Analysis Approach Yields New Insights

    • Type: Article
    • Locations: Katmai National Park & Preserve,Lake Clark National Park & Preserve
    • Offices: Southwest Alaska Inventory & Monitoring Network
    A large lake with ice along the lakeshore.

    Read the summary and get the link to an article that describes a new approach to model lake ice phenology: Kirchner, P. B. and M. P. Hannam. 2024. Volume-mediated lake-ice phenology in Southwest Alaska revealed through remote sensing and survival analysis. Water 16(16): 2309.

  • Timucuan Ecological & Historic Preserve

    Climate Change in Timucuan Preserve

    • Type: Article
    • Locations: Timucuan Ecological & Historic Preserve
    flooding and cone around fort wall

    What does climate change mean for Timucuan Preserve? Learn about the specific changes, challenges, and opportunities for action in the park.

  • Safeguarding Cultural Treasures Against Climate Peril in Midwest Parks

    • Type: Article
    • Locations: Apostle Islands National Lakeshore,Herbert Hoover National Historic Site,Isle Royale National Park,Ozark National Scenic Riverways,Pictured Rocks National Lakeshore,Tallgrass Prairie National Preserve
    • Offices: Midwest Archeological Center,Natural Resource Stewardship and Science Directorate
    Dirt trail leads to the keepers

    The Midwest United States, with its windy, rolling plains, doesn't often come to mind when we think about the effects of climate change on our world - but it should.

  • Alaska’s Endangered Heritage: Climate Change and Cultural Preservation

    • Type: Article
    • Locations: Aniakchak National Monument & Preserve,Bering Land Bridge National Preserve,Cape Krusenstern National Monument,Denali National Park & Preserve,Gates Of The Arctic National Park & Preserve,
    • Offices: Natural Resource Stewardship and Science Directorate
    View of a snow-covered mountain from across a lake.

    The rugged beauty of Alaska has been the homelands of Alaska Native people for thousands of generations. Today the relentless march of climate change threatens a range of cultural resources from archeological sites to historic cemeteries. Now the National Park Service is in a race to document heritage across the parklands in Alaska.

  • Changing Patterns of Water Availability May Change Vegetation Composition in US National Parks

    • Type: Article
    • Locations: Acadia National Park,Agate Fossil Beds National Monument,Alibates Flint Quarries National Monument,Amistad National Recreation Area,Antietam National Battlefield,
    • Offices: Appalachian Highlands Inventory & Monitoring Network,Chihuahuan Desert Inventory & Monitoring Network,Cumberland Piedmont Inventory & Monitoring Network,Eastern Rivers and Mountains Inventory & Monitoring Network,Great Lakes Inventory & Monitoring Network,
    Green, orange, and dead grey junipers in red soil, mountains in background

    Across the US, changes in water availability are altering which plants grow where. These changes are evident at a broad scale. But not all areas experience the same climate in the same way, even within the boundaries of a single national park. A new dataset gives park managers a valuable tool for understanding why vegetation has changed and how it might change in the future under different climate-change scenarios.

  • Localized Drought Impacts on Northern Colorado Plateau Landbirds

    • Type: Article
    • Locations: Arches National Park,Black Canyon Of The Gunnison National Park,Bryce Canyon National Park,Canyonlands National Park,Capitol Reef National Park,
    • Offices: Inventory and Monitoring Division,Northern Colorado Plateau Inventory & Monitoring Network
    A man wearing a clipboard looks through binoculars at dawn in field of sagebrush

    Birds of the desert southwest, a climate-change hotspot, are among the most vulnerable groups in the US. To help park managers plan for those changes, scientists evaluated the influence of water deficit on landbird communities at 11 national parks in Utah and Colorado. The results will help land managers to focus conservation efforts on places where certain species are most vulnerable to projected climate changes.

Tags: climate science climate change science
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Last updated: January 13, 2025

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