Climate Futures Use Cases

Using climate futures to build robust water systems at Big Bend NP

Decisions regarding large infrastructure projects, which are intended to endure for extended periods and are challenging to reverse, should consider future climate implications to ensure their robustness. Early in the development of a project, climate futures can inform design to mitigate risk.

Big Bend National Park uses Oak Spring, a single water source that dates to the 1950s, to supply a region of the park that is a hub of visitor services. Prior to investing in needed improvements to the water infrastructure, park staff sought to understand how Oak Spring might respond to climate change. An NPS analysis compared historical spring flow records to climate, establishing that the water source is primarily supplied by precipitation flowing directly through fractured bedrock, with an approximate 3-month delay from when rain falls and when related changes occur in flows.

Based on this relationship, NPS scientists modeled flow under warm wet (best case) and hot dry (worst case) climate futures to determine implications for future water availability from Oak Spring. Results showed that in the best-case scenario, spring flow may be critically low as frequently in the future as in recent history and in the worst-case scenario, critically low flows would occur three times as often, significantly challenging park operations. With this information, park leadership developed water conservation measures, including upgrades to the water supply system to reduce water loss and increasing storage at Oak Spring to address conditions associated with both scenarios.

For more information, see NPS Releases Chisos Basin Water Study - Big Bend National Park (U.S. National Park Service)

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Incorporating climate scenarios in a Resource Stewardship Strategy at Devils Tower NM

Using climate futures in integrated resource planning can help to clarify how resources interact with and may be affected by climate and where uncertainty exists. The use of scenario-based adaptation can illuminate tradeoffs that may exist among resource objectives so that these may be addressed.

Devils Tower National Monument implemented a Resource Stewardship Strategy, which is an integrated planning process that defines short- and long-term goals and objectives for stewardship of natural and cultural resources. The strategy identifies specific activities or management strategies designed to achieve and uphold desired conditions. During the planning phase, park staff used scenario planning to ensure that goals and activities considered climate change projections and potential effects.

The planning process used four divergent climate futures to capture the uncertainties inherent in climate projections relevant to the resource and management concerns of park staff. Among the resource issues addressed was a desired goal to restore all springs and wetlands to natural, well-functioning condition. Proposed actions included removal of all water infrastructure at all springs—which provide a source of water for wetlands and ecosystem functions during dry conditions.

During scenario planning, park staff and subject-matter experts identified potential impacts to the resources for each of the climate futures. Three of the four climate futures would likely result in drying of springs and shrinking of wetlands, presenting a challenge to the park’s dual objectives of maintaining wetland function and removing spring infrastructure. Consequently, the park revised its long-term goal for springs and wetlands, opting for an adaptive management approach through 2030. The revised strategy aims to enhance wetland conditions in the short-term by retaining existing infrastructure and by planting trees that are adapted to drier climates to reduce evapotranspiration and provide shade.

For more details, see Climate Change Scenario Planning for Resource Stewardship: Applying a Novel Approach in Devils Tower National Monument (nps.gov)

Understanding climate change effects on Karner blue butterfly at Indiana Dunes NP

Climate change is profoundly impacting species worldwide, altering their habitats and threatening their survival. For instance, rising temperatures are shifting the native climates of many species towards cooler regions or higher altitudes, resulting in range shifts of mobile species and local extirpations of species with insufficient dispersal capacity. Using climate futures to predict potential shifts in the climatic conditions to which species are adapted can inform conservation efforts aimed at safeguarding vulnerable species. This approach recognizes the shortcomings of historical methods in managing change effectively.

In the past, the Karner blue butterfly flourished in the Great Lakes and northeast regions, with one of the nation’s largest populations located in Indian Dunes National Park (INDU), at the southern limit of the species’ range. As the species began to decline at the turn of the century, park staff attempted to resist this change through habitat modification and augmentation of INDU Karner blue populations via captive-rearing and release; however, the species, now federally endangered, has not been observed at INDU since 2014. An unseasonably warm spring two years before (2012) caused a phenological mismatch in which larvae emerged from eggs laid the previous summer largely before emergence of the their sole food source, the wild lupine plant. Summer continued this pattern, bringing both high temperatures and drought that severely limited both availability of food from nectar plants and healthy lupine plants on which to lay eggs.

Using climate future summaries and other web-based climate data tools can inform this step and the following step of identifying likely natural and climate change hazards that could affect the condition of resources and the longevity of facilities investments.

The climatic sensitivity of the Karner blue butterfly, coupled with anticipated climate change-driven range contraction, prompted NPS scientists and partners to examine warming trends and phenological changes using climate futures. Their findings showed that for 65% of the climate futures, the necessary heat accumulation for larval hatching at INDU occurred earlier in the year than in 2012, showing that the historical southern margin of the Karner blue range will experience warming beyond the species' survival threshold. These data support the decision by park staff to accept the species' loss at INDU and cease restoration efforts, while also informing Karner blue conservation efforts elsewhere where the climatic conditions required by the butterfly persist or are projected to occur in the future.

For more information, see DataStore - Blue snowflakes in a warming world: Karner blue butterfly climate change vulnerability synthesis and best practices for adaptation (nps.gov)

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Climate futures used to adapt cultural landscapes at Martin Van Buren NHS

Cultural resources face similar exposure to climate change as natural resources in their respective areas. However, much of the significance of cultural resources is rooted in their specific locations. Therefore, preserving these resources and the connections they offer to our nation’s history requires understanding of future climate trends and thoughtful management to address projected changes.

Martin Van Buren National Historic Site (MAVA), where the former U.S. president lived after completing his term, is a 285-acre working agricultural landscape. President Van Buren believed that agriculture was vital for the future of America, and used progressive farming to demonstrate that soil in northern states could still produce economically viable produce. MAVA recently restored the fruit orchard as an example of Van Buren’s farming practices and the historical landscape.

The goal of the orchard project was to plant a sustainable, historically authentic orchard that limited ground disturbance to avoid damaging archaeological artifacts. Since the climate has changed at MAVA since Van Buren’s first orchard, MAVA engaged subject-matter experts to identify tree species and farm designs that would be sustainable for the climate of today and the future. All climate futures showed a shift to earlier bloom dates of fruit trees, which could increase damage from early spring cold temperatures and lead to a mismatch between the timing of the emergence of flowers and key pollinators. Hotter summers, indicated in climate futures, can also cause temporary drought stress, decreasing yields. Therefore, the design team selected tree varieties that can withstand frost and drought. While not an exact replica of Van Buren’s orchard, other design factors—number, spacing, and arrangement of trees—evoke his progressive farming legacy by employing contemporary organic orchard management practices to promote sustainability. In spring of 2024 the first eighty-one apple and pear trees were planted to bring in this new era of fruit growing at MAVA. When the planting is complete, 136 fruit trees will grow in the orchard.

For details, see Mava_climatechangekeymessages - Martin Van Buren National Historic Site (U.S. National Park Service) (nps.gov)

Orchard Project at Martin Van Buren National Historic Site (U.S. National Park Service) (nps.gov)

Using climate futures for facility investment hazard analysis at Klondike Gold Rush NHP

To ensure that facility investments are financially, operationally, and environmentally sustainable, Policy Memo 15-01, Addressing Climate Change and Natural Hazards for facilities, as also described in the NPS Facility Investment Strategy, requires park staff to identify climate hazard-related threats and impacts for proposed capital projects from initial phases of the capital investment process (CIP).

The recently designated Chilkoot National Historic Trail connects Alaska and British Columbia as it traverses along and across the Taiya River in Klondike Gold Rush National Historical Park. The Warder’s Memorial Bridge – which crosses the Taiya, connecting the northern and southern portions of the trail system – was dislodged and swept away during flooding in October 2022. Earlier iterations of this bridge met the same fate on this unpredictable and seasonally rapid-flowing stretch of the Taiya River.

KLGO’s administration submitted an Investment Concept proposal to the Bureau Investment Review Board in 2022 to replace the bridge and restore the trail connection and visitor opportunities to travel the entire length of the Chilkoot National Historic Trail. As part of the routine subject matter expert (SME) review of the proposal, potential climate hazards in terms of projected changes in overall total precipitation, frequency of extreme events, and temperatures were identified using the Northern Climate Reports, a climate and ecological futures data resource developed by the Scenarios Network for Alaska + Arctic Planning at the International Arctic Research Center. Projections for KLGO indicate increased precipitation overall and across all seasons, with increases in fall precipitation between 1.9 to 4.4 inches by mid-century compared to the 1950-2009 reference period. Annual maximum 1- and 5-day precipitation totals are also anticipated to rise under different models and emissions pathways. Despite uncertainty in the magnitude of these changes, the signal is clear that more precipitation is to be expected. Coupled with higher temperatures that will accelerate glacial melt (+3.1 to +5.2°F in spring and +1.8° to +8.4°F in summer by mid-century), the likelihood for future damaging flood events is very high. Based on these projections, SME recommendations to the Bureau Investment Review Board suggested development of other options to in-kind replacement of Warder's Memorial Bridge, including adaptation meausre such as enhanced structural engineering or raising the bridge elevation.

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Park-Specific Training and Empowerment of Staff

Understanding past climate trends and projections of future climate is important for staff across all disciplines in the National Park Service. Shifts in climate - as well as its impacts on storm surge, snowpack, heat waves, floods, wildfires, and more - affect ecosystems and species, water quantity and quality, and the integrity of archeological sites, historic structures, and human infrastructure. These changes also affect the safety of staff, visitors, and adjacent communities as well as visitor use patterns and experiences. Changes in climate and visitor use can, in turn, shift fee revenue and staffing needs.

Climate Futures information is useful for training park staff and volunteers about past and potential future changes. Training can incorporate traditional presentations, Q & A, and discussion or be more interactive with scenario-type exercises. Example questions include:

• How would each climate future affect the work you do? How does this differ between scenarios?
• What is important to think about now in terms of changing goals, priorities, strategies, or methods, based on the climate futures?
• What do you think future staff would have wanted you to do today with this information?
• Do the answers to these questions change when different potential climate projections are considered, or are there actions to take that would help adapt to divergent climate futures?

Training can occur in interdisciplinary groups to facilitate sharing of diverse perspectives, emphasize the interconnectedness of park goals and operations, promote teamwork, and help staff appreciate the importance and challenges of not only their own work but others as well. Training also can be conducted within programs to drill deeper into specific topics, concerns, and opportunities. Many parks have already started climate change response work. Trainers may choose to incorporate examples of what the park is already doing to understand, adapt to, mitigate, and communicate climate change.

While such training may not result in immediate “solutions” or change in operations, staff empowered with climate change knowledge can incorporate this learning into strategic planning and routine decision-making. Staff can begin to assess whether current goals and objectives – or the methods to achieve them - are realistic for the future, or if changes in strategy, priorities, or protocols might be warranted. For example, should a park emphasize different species in a restoration seed mix, evaluate new ways to deal with erosion, or consider other approaches to emergency evacuation planning, snowplowing, or fuel treatments? Knowledge of climate futures and experience considering how they will affect park resources, infrastructure, and operations will help NPS employees to ask important questions and seek new approaches. Knowledge of Climate Futures may further motivate sustainability initiatives that not only reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but often save money in the long run. Staff also can incorporate Climate Futures directly into park websites, interpretive materials, and public programs (see below).

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Climate futures as tools for communicating resource change with the public

As stewards of the National Park System on behalf of the American people, the National Park Service (NPS) must engage the public on consequential management challenges. This is particularly true as our warming world increasingly pushes park units toward novel conditions outside the realm of previous experience. Meaningful communication about the challenges we face is a cornerstone of the NPS Climate Change Response Strategy.

Climate-driven changes to the landscape of Capitol Reef National Park are evident, particularly in the widespread mortality of juniper trees due to prolonged drought. As is sometimes done elsewhere, park communications could focus solely on observed impacts. But doing so can support a false narrative that Capitol Reef is merely a passive victim of global climate change, with the fate of park vegetation communities a fait accompli. Instead, communications could seek to interpret how observed changes are likely to evolve under future conditions. Doing so helps explore important uncertainties and highlights possible opportunities for solution-oriented management intervention.

Two recent articles from the Northern Colorado Plateau Inventory and Monitoring Network help demonstrate how leveraging plausible climate futures helps interpret future realities for Capitol Reef National Park. This exploration of future projections reveals that while there is some uncertainty around precipitation trends, future warming is all but certain across all models. Thus even under a range of plausible futures, some seasonal trends can be reasonably anticipated, including less soil moisture, a shift in vegetation growing season, and the continued possibility of late summer floods.

Furthermore, the remote sensing of vegetation growth reveals important cycles tied closely to past precipitation. Should similar precipitation patterns persist under a warm-wet climate future, well-timed planting efforts for particularly impacted species—like juniper—could result in successful restoration. Under other plausible futures, managers might instead plan to accept the gradual transition to more dry-adapted vegetation communities.

These examples help illustrate the importance of moving audiences beyond merely mourning observed impacts. Incorporating insights gleaned from multiple climate futures illustrates that—despite uncertainties around timing and magnitude—anticipated conditions can support important management action in the present. Considering multiple climate futures helps us envision how parks and partners might “hedge their bets” today to meet the conservation goals of tomorrow.

For more information, see Historical and Future Climate Patterns at Capitol Reef National Park: Some Biological Implications and Helping Managers Plan for Climate Change with Remote Sensing at Capitol Reef National Park.