Park-specific Climate Futures

Climate change already affects resources, assets, and visitors in national parks. As park managers cope with existing challenges and adapt to a rapidly changing climate, there is a growing need for products—at park-specific scales—that characterize how climate is projected to change in the future. To address this need, the Climate Change Response Program developed park-specific summaries of climate exposure for all parks in the conterminous U.S. to inform and support climate change vulnerability assessments, climate adaptation planning and decisions, and conversations with visitors, neighboring communities, and other stakeholders.

Download Park-Specific Climate Futures Summaries

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Reports are listed alphabetically by park name

Source: Data Store Collection 9441. To search for additional information, visit the Data Store.

What Are Climate Futures?

A step in scenario-based climate change adaptation and planning for a changing climate is to characterize both how climate is projected to change in the future and the associated uncertainty. These "climate futures" describe parameters of plausible future climates that could occur at a specific place and time.

Illustration of two hypothetical climate futures. Metrics for the “hot and dry” climate future (left) correspond with a future scenario of increasing drought conditions. Metrics for the “warm and wet” climate future (right) correspond with increased flooding and relative humidity.

Download Climate Futures Methods Report

A methods report describes the analytical approach to assess historical climate trends, develop and select relevant climate futures, and calculate climate metrics that are used in the exposure briefs. It also includes appendices that address frequently asked questions and provides details about data sets and calculations, definitions of key terms, and information on selection of global climate models.

New report! Methods for assessing climate change exposure for national park planning

Climate Futures Summaries FAQ

See FAQ for climate futures summaries

NPS Photo

Climate Futures Use Cases

• Using climate futures to build robust water systems at Big Bend NP
• Incorporating climate scenarios in a Resource Stewardship Strategy at Devils Tower NM
• Understanding climate change effects on Karner blue butterfly at Indiana Dunes NP
• Climate futures used to design cultural landscapes at Martin Van Buren NHS
• Using climate futures for facility investment hazard analysis at Klondike Gold Rush NHP
• Park-specific training and empowerment of staff
• Climate futures as tools for communicating resource change with the public

Best practices for incorporating climate change science into decision making

The National Park Service uses high-quality information about the Earth’s changing climate system to consider, plan for, and respond to the existing and projected impacts of climate change on its mission, programs, operations, and personnel. To support this policy, Department of Interior and NPS scientists recently developed technical guidance and best practices for using climate change science to inform analysis, consultation, and decision-making. These Climate Futures Summaries adhere to these best practices, which include:

• Use multiple scenarios when possible to assess risks from a range of plausible futures. This is particularly important for large investments or irreversible decisions.
• Use multiple climate models within each scenario to account for the range of outcomes due to model uncertainty.
• Use relevant climate data and projections of future climate change consistent with the timeframe of the policy, action, or decision being considered.
• Clearly describe key analysis uncertainties and how they were addressed in the analysis and/or decision process. This ensures transparency and learning among analysts and decision makers.

Other sources for climate info:

• Fifth National Climate Assessment. The Fifth National Climate Assessment is the US Government’s preeminent report on climate change impacts, risks, and responses. It is a congressionally mandated interagency effort that provides the scientific foundation to support informed decision-making across the United States.
• State Climate Summaries. NOAA’s State Climate Summaries provide state-level climate information, covering assessment topics directly related to NOAA’s mission, specifically historical climate variations and trends, future climate model projections of climate conditions during the 21st century, and past and future conditions of sea level and coastal flooding.
• Climate visualization tools. As the magnitude of the climate crisis unfolds and greater attention is being paid to it, new resources have come online to help determine climate risk. These resources vary both in complexity and in the information they provide, with tradeoffs associated with the use of different tools and projection approaches.
  • The Climate Toolbox
  • Future Climate Analogs
  • USGS National Climate Change Viewer

Additional Resources

While climate futures summaries are not yet available for Alaska, Caribbean, and Pacific Island parks, the following resources are available for Alaska and Hawaii:

• Northern Climate Reports for Changing Arctic Ecosystems. Tool developed by the Alaska Climate Adaptation Science Center and the University of Alaska Fairbanks Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning to summarize future climate for multiple projections. Climate information is available for temperature, precipitation, hydrology, permafrost, wildfire, and spruce beetle infestations.
• Hawaiʻi Climate Data Portal. Tool developed by University of Hawaii to visualize historical and rainfall and temperature on the Hawaiian islands.