NPS Photo Forces that Influence Global ClimateThe rates and degrees by which the global climate changes can be influenced by many different factors. Some of them, like tectonic plate movement, affect the climate very slowly. Others, like an asteroid strike, can change the climate rather quickly. Use the drop-down boxes below for a quick refresher on some of the forces that regularly influence climate change. We know that Earth's continents move around because the speed and direction of the movement is measurable. Plate tectonics is the theory that explains how and why this movement occurs. Basically, Earth's crust is broken up into large chunks of rock, called plates. The plates slowly drift across the surface of the globe, floating atop the Earth's mantle. The mantle is made up of hot, partially liquified rock, called magma. It's this slippery layer that allows the plates to slide around, getting pulled into different areas by uneven heating. As the plates move, they may separate or collide with one another. This activity can spread seafloors and form mountains, plateaus, valleys, volcanoes, or other geologic formations.
By monitoring the rate of seafloor spreading, scientists have determined that plate movement tends to happen very slowly, at about the rate human fingernails grow. Still, with enough time, the drifting plates and their geologic features can alter air and ocean currents. This impacts global climate. Because the Earth is a globe, its surface is unevenly heated by the Sun's warmth. This makes the Equator warmer than the poles. Different temperature zones effect the kinds of ecosystems that continents can support. For example, you tend to find tropical rainforests closer to the Equator, while snowy tundras are closer to the poles.The color of Earth's surface influences how and where heat from the Sun is absorbed and/or reflected back out into space. Snow and ice are brightly colored, so they're more reflective than dark-colored features, like oceans and forests. In these ways, the color and reflectivity of Earth's surface features have a big impact on climate.
Aerosols (fine solid or liquid particles suspended in the air) also contribute to Earth's reflectivity. Aerosols can be natural or manmade. Dust, volcanic ash, organic compounds, and wildfire smoke are some examples of natural aerosols. Manmade aerosols are typically a byproduct of pollution or deforestation. Aerosols can contrubute to Earth's cooling or warming, depending on location, particle size, and other factors. Earth's atmosphere is made up of many gases. Nitrogen, oxygen, and argon are the main ones, but a small amount of the air we breathe is also made up of greenhouse gases. These include methane, carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, water vapor, and ozone. They're called "greenhouse gases" because they trap heat from the Sun, like the walls of a greenhouse. Because of this, greenhouse gases have a big role to play our planet's climate, despite making up less than 1% of the atmosphere. Geologic and biologic activity can also emit gases in amounts large enough to influence air composition.
Biological activity (the activities of living things) can also affect climate by influencing the gaseous makeup of our atmosphere. As Earth's many lifeforms experience natural processes such as growth, death, decay, and renewal, gases are consumed, released, recycled, and exchanged on a grand scale. For example, plants inhale the carbon dioxide (a greenhouse gas) that animal organisms breath out. Plants also exhale the oxygen that animal organisms breathe in. In this way, large forests and other plant-saturated areas play a big role in keeping Earth from overheating. Just like our planet's geology, the rate of biologic change isn't always constant or easily predictable, but it can be observed and studied.
Living organisms have the power to influence climate and have done so throughout time:
Climate Change Through the AgesGeology (the study of rocks) can give us amazing insight into what the global climate was like at different times in the past. Usually, climate change happened very slowly, which gave living species enough time to adapt to changes as they were occurring. However, geology and the fossil record also show that there have been times in the past when global climate changed very quickly — too quickly for most species to adjust. Click the drop-down boxes to view to some common questions we get here at Dinosaur National Monument, and discover the role climate change has played through time. Yes, many times. One of the most dramatic warming events happened at the end of the Permian period (about 252 million years ago), well before dinosaurs ever existed. This rapid warming resulted in the largest extinction event in Earth's history. About 90% of all plant and animal species went extinct.
What happened? In what's now Siberia, huge amounts of a volcanic rock, called basalt, burbled up and flooded the surface with lava on a continent-wide scale. The area already held huge stores of coal, oil, and natural gas that had built up during the Paleozoic period. The lava ignited these, releasing huge amounts of carbon dioxide and other volcanic gases into the atmosphere. Even though these fiery "basalt floods" took about 60,000 years to cover the continent, the changes to global climate happened too quickly for most species to adapt. The fossil record reveals that about 90% of plant and animal species on Earth died out during the end-Permian extinction event. This is the largest extinction event identified in the fossil record. To paleontologists, it's known as, "The Great Dying." The Quarry dinosaurs lived in the Late Jurassic Period, about 150 million years ago. This was still the middle age of the dinosaurs, about 84 million years before the asteroid strike. Back then, the ecosystem of northern Utah was very different than the dry, cold desert we find today. Instead, this area was a flat, warm floodplain full of lush plants, tall coniferous trees, and braided rivers cutting through the land.
What happened? Locally, the climate of Late Jurassic Utah was warm and humid. Not only was Utah closer to the Equator back then, but a mountain building event called the Nevadan Orogeny had just begun along the west coast. The low elevation of these mountains allowed moisture from the Pacific Ocean to flow further inland and nourish the region's extensive plant life. Just like today, local climates were also influenced by the global climate. In the Jurassic, Earth as a whole was warm and humid, too. This was because the supercontinent Pangea had begun to break up about 50 million years prior. When this happened, volcanoes sprang up around the world. The ash and greenhouse gasses they produced warmed things up. Shallow seas formed at the seams where the continents were spreading and the planet humidified. While Pangea's breakup initially resulted in the end-Triassic Mass Extinction (about 201 million yeas ago), the global climate had more or less stabilized by the Late Jurassic Period. Yes. Climate change happened throughout the Mesozoic Era (the Age of Dinosaurs). For most of the Mesozoic, climate change happened very slowly and didn't result in mass extinctions because Earth's lifeforms had time to adapt to the changes. But there were a few instances when the rate of change increased and mass extinctions occurred as a direct result.
What Happened? The National Park Service offers details about Mesozoic Era Extinctions on their Age of Dinosaurs subject page. There, you can read about the role climate played in various extinctions throughout the Triassic, Jurassic, and Cretaceous periods. When the dinosaurs were here in the Late Jurassic period, this area experienced at least 3 severe droughts. When each drought ended, the river filled with water again, pushing the bones of any dinosaurs who died along the shore downstream. The bones were caught at a bend or sandbar, where they were quickly buried in the river sediments.
What Happened? The dinosaurs found in the Quarry Exhibit Hall lived about 150 million years ago — that's about 84 million years before the asteroid impact that rendered the big dinosaurs extinct. The droughts that killed the Quarry dinosaurs probably happened every few decades or so. We know the droughts happened because the bones are surrounded by unionid clams, whose death positions indicate drought. All non-avian dinosaurs were victims of the End-Cretaceous mass extinction event, which happened about 66 million years ago. A huge asteroid impact caused sudden, rapid climate change around the world.
What Happened? Most scientists attribute the extinction of the non-avian dinosaurs to a massive crater on the Yucatán Penninsula in Mexico. The presence of shocked quartz in ocean sediments beneath the crater indicate that it was formed by an asteroid impact. The age of this crater (66 million years old) perfectly matches the age of iridium-rich sediment deposits around the world, collectively known as the K-T boundary. Iridium is rare in the Earth's crust, but very common in asteroids. Today, the Chicxulub Crater is about 120 miles (200 km) wide. The asteroid that created it is estimated to have been about 6 miles (9.6 km) across. Scientific evidence suggests that the impact released greenhouse gases from deep within the Earth causing global volcanism that quickly heated the planet. The presence of glass beads in the gills of fossilized fish at the Tanis Fossil Site suggests that debris thrown up by the impact became molten as it reentered the lower atmosphere. Because the K-T boundary line is also rich in fossilized charcoal, it's thought that the flaming debris caused global wildfires. This would've killed plants and animals on a grand scale. When the fires ended, lingering smoke blocked out sunlight, swiftly cooling the planet and causing even more ecological mayhem. The fossil record reveals that about 76% of Earth's species went extinct around this time. Large animals that required a lot of food, like the dinosaurs, died out when their ecosystems collapsed. The majority of creatures who survived were less than 50 lbs (22.6 kg). Modern Climate ChangeWhen we look at Earth's climate through the lens of geologic time, it's clear that climate change happens. Geology and the fossil record provide plenty of proof that climate change happened very slowly most of the time, but there were occasions where the rate of change suddenly sped up. If there's one thing the fossil record reveals about ancient climate change — whether it got hotter, colder, wetter, or drier — it's that mass extinctions happened when the climate changed faster than organisms could adapt. Today, the vast majority of climate scientists agree that average global temperatures are changing much faster than usual, and that the evidence for human activities being the main driver of this change is too substantial to ignore. Perhaps its no coincidence that Earth appears to be experiencing a modern mass extinction event, dubbed the "Anthropocene Extinction." Numerous studies have revealed that bird, amphibian, and insect species are each declining by over 40% worldwide as a result of human activities, including human-caused climate change.
NPS Climate Change Response Program What's the Park Service Doing?In 2024, the National Park Service (NPS) Climate Change Response Program compiled decades of park-specific climate data to examine how recent climate trends could impact parks in the future. The result of this research was the Climate Futures Summaries. Planning for more than one plausible climate scenario puts park administrators in the best postion to avoid surprises and costly mistakes as a result of climate change. The NPS Climate Change Response Program recognizes that it's impossible to precisely predict future greenhouse gas emissions and how our climate will respond to them. To account for these unknowns, the Climate Futures Summaries examine historic climate trends to offer several possible climate futures for each park.Takeaways from Dinosaur's Climate Futures Summary:
Dinosaur's Climate FutureWhile it's impossible to precisely predict future greenhouse gas emissions and how our climate will respond to them, we can look at what's happening now to make educated guesses about how the climate could change going forward. This is why the authors of Dinosaur's Climate Futures Summary ran 40 different climate models — to account for a variety of possibilities. The models used observed climate data from 1979 to 2012 to set Dinosaur's climate baseline. The authors then compared climate projections from the 40 models against this baseline to get an understanding of how different climate scenarios could unfold at the park through 2050. In the end, they identified 2 different "climate futures" for Dinosaur that are both plausible: a "Warm Wet" future, and a "Hot Dry" future, which we'll examine below. It's important to remember that these are projections, not predictions. However, considering both of these very different climate possibilities puts park managers in the best position to prepare for a variety of plausible outcomes.
NPS Climate Change Response Program TemperaturesAll 40 climate models predicted warmer temperatures for Dinosaur going forward. The Warm Wet future showed considerable warming, with temps rising 3.8 °F by 2050. The Hot Dry future was more extreme, showing an increase of 6.6 °F by 2050. Both of these projections exceed anything Dinosaur has experienced in recent history, but they're consistent with temperature increases already being observed at the park as a result of climate change.PrecipitationPrecipitation is expected to increase overall, but is highly variable. Both climate futures project drier and wetter years through 2050 when compared to the 1979-2012 baseline. This means that very dry years could still occur, despite an increasing trend in precipitation overall.The Warm Wet climate future projects +2 inches in increased annual rainfall, and the Hot Dry climate future projects +0.6 inches. Very dry intervals and warming can lead to drought conditions that affect river levels, water availability, ecosystem health, and recreation. Wet years can lead to flooding that impacts water quality, infrastructure, and transportation routes.Extreme EventsExtreme weather events are another byproduct of climate change. In statistics, if you score in the 99th percentile on a test, it means you did better than 99% of all other test takers. At Dinosaur, the historic 99th percentile for temperature is 94.4 °F (34.7 °C). This doesn't mean it was the hottest temp on record. It means that the days that scored 94.4 °F on the thermometer were hotter than 99% of all other days between 1979 and 2012. According to the models, the Warm Wet climate future projects an additional +16 days per year where temperatures exceed 94.4 °F. The Hot Dry climate future projects an additional +34.5 days per year exceeding 94.4 °F.With precipitation, the 99th percentile at Dinosaur historically is 0.6 inches in 24 hours. This means that the days we had 0.6 inches in the rain tube were wetter than 99% of all other days between 1979 and 2012. The record for precipitation in that same period was 1.5 inches in 24 hours. Both climate futures project slightly increased precipitation extremes. Between 2035 and 2065, the Warm Wet future projects 1.9 inches as the largest precipitation event. The Hot Dry scenario projects 1.6 inches. This is consistent with the fact that climate change is projected to lead to more intense extremes in precipitation. Seeing the EffectsThe global climate is changing, and National Park sites aren't immune. Today, about 76% of parks are experiencing earlier springtime conditions than they did historically. This has direct impacts on the life cycles of plants and animals that visitors come to see. It also impacts the timing of park operations and events that visitors rely on and enjoy. Human-caused climate change has increased heatwaves and altered the density and distribution of vegetation, creating the perfect conditions for more extreme wildfires. In the western U.S., the area burned by wildfires has more than doubled above natural levels since 1984. In the parks, increased wildfire risk means buildings, cultural landscapes, and infrastructure are vulnerable to burning. Wildfire can also endanger human life and have serious impacts on air quality, as well as leave a lasting physical mark on the landscape. According to climate change projections, areas like Dinosaur National Monument are at particular risk for burning due to their location. Visitors often come to the parks with certain activities in mind, like hiking, snowshoeing, wildlife watching, and taking family photos in front of iconic scenery. As it stands, the effects of human-caused climate change could have tremendous impacts on park visitation, tourism, recreational opportunities, and the very appearance of the parks themselves if current climate trends are allowed to continue.More Climate ResourcesThe National Park Service has numerous resources available to help you learn more about modern climate change. Use the links provided below to explore common questions, learn how climage change is impacting the parks, discover what we're doing about it, and learn what you can do.
Common Climate Questions
Despite abundant scientific evidence, the media often portrays climate change as a controversial issue. Explore some popular questions. 
Park-Specific Climate Impacts
Climate change has wide-reaching effects across the National Park System. These living laboratories help us study its effects. 
NPS Climate Change Response Program
The National Park Service Climate Change Response Program advances efforts to address the effects of climate change across the Park System. |
Last updated: January 19, 2025