Last updated: January 20, 2025
Article
Projections for Western Woodlands’ Future Give Clues on How to Save Them
Environments in the dry Southwest will become less suitable than those in the northern Great Basin and the Colorado Plateau.
By the editors of Park Science magazine
Image credit: NPS / Jodi Norris
The pinyon–juniper woodlands of western North America provide shelter for wildlife and space for people to recreate. For Indigenous people, they’re culturally significant places. And they give livestock room and forage to graze. But as the climate changes, pinyon–juniper woodlands will likely change too. How they change could have profound impacts.
A study described in the January 2025 issue of Rangeland Ecology & Management evaluated the factors that influence where pinyon-juniper woodlands grow. The study authors analyzed different species of pinyon pine and juniper trees under several climate scenarios. This helped them project how pinyon-juniper ranges might shift in response to a changing climate.
The researchers predict that some pinyon and juniper populations may suffer widespread declines while others remain stable. This will likely depend on location. Environments in the dry Southwest will become less suitable than those in the northern Great Basin and the Colorado Plateau. But the study authors expect more losses than gains overall for pinyon-juniper woodlands. They suggest actions land managers can take to make woodlands more resilient.
Noel and others. 2025. Most Pinyon–Juniper Woodland Species Distributions Are Projected to Shrink Rather than Shift Under Climate Change. Rangeland Ecology & Management 98: 454–466.